Computational Methods for Parameter Estimation in Climate Models

Intensive computational methods have been used by Earth scientists in a wide range of problems in data inversion and uncertainty quantification such as earthquake epicenter location and climate projections. To quantify the uncertainties resulting from a range of plausible model configurations it is necessary to estimate a multidimensional probability distribution. The computational cost of estimating these distributions for geoscience applications is impractical using traditional methods such as Metropolis/Gibbs algorithms as simulation costs limit the number of experiments that can be obtained reasonably. Several alternate sampling strategies have been proposed that could improve on the sampling efficiency including Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) and Adaptive Metropolis algorithms. The performance of these proposed sampling strategies are evaluated with a surrogate climate model that is able to approximate the noise and response behavior of a realistic atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The surrogate model is fast enough that its evaluation can be embedded in these Monte Carlo algorithms. We show that adaptive methods can be superior to MVFSA to approximate the known posterior distribution with fewer forward evaluations. However the adaptive methods can also be limited by inadequate sample mixing. The Single Component and Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis algorithms were found to resolve these limitations, although challenges remain to approximating multi-modal distributions. The results show that these advanced methods of statistical inference can provide practical solutions to the climate model calibration problem and challenges in quantifying climate projection uncertainties. The computational methods would also be useful to problems outside climate prediction, particularly those where sampling is limited by availability of computational resources.National Science Foundation OCE-0415251CONACyT-Mexico 159764Institute for Geophysic

Gravitational Lenses With More Than Four Images: I. Classification of Caustics

We study the problem of gravitational lensing by an isothermal elliptical density galaxy in the presence of a tidal perturbation. When the perturbation is fairly strong and oriented near the galaxy's minor axis, the lens can produce image configurations with six or even eight highly magnified images lying approximately on a circle. We classify the caustic structures in the model and identify the range of models that can produce such lenses. Sextuple and octuple lenses are likely to be rare because they require special lens configurations, but a full calculation of the likelihood will have to include both the existence of lenses with multiple lens galaxies and the strong magnification bias that affects sextuple and octuple lenses. At optical wavelengths these lenses would probably appear as partial or complete Einstein rings, but at radio wavelengths the individual images could probably be resolved.Comment: 30 pages, including 12 postscript figures; accepted for publication in Ap

A response to “Likelihood ratio as weight of evidence: a closer look” by Lund and Iyer

Recently, Lund and Iyer (L&I) raised an argument regarding the use of likelihood ratios in court. In our view, their argument is based on a lack of understanding of the paradigm. L&I argue that the decision maker should not accept the expert’s likelihood ratio without further consideration. This is agreed by all parties. In normal practice, there is often considerable and proper exploration in court of the basis for any probabilistic statement. We conclude that L&I argue against a practice that does not exist and which no one advocates. Further we conclude that the most informative summary of evidential weight is the likelihood ratio. We state that this is the summary that should be presented to a court in every scientific assessment of evidential weight with supporting information about how it was constructed and on what it was based

A Spitzer IRAC Census of the Asymptotic Giant Branch Populations in Local Group Dwarfs. II. IC 1613

We present Spitzer Space Telescope IRAC photometry of the Local Group dwarf irregular galaxy IC 1613. We compare our 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0 micron photometry with broadband optical photometry and find that the optical data do not detect 43% and misidentify an additional 11% of the total AGB population, likely because of extinction caused by circumstellar material. Further, we find that a narrowband optical carbon star study of IC 1613 detects 50% of the total AGB population and only considers 18% of this population in calculating the carbon to M-type AGB ratio. We derive an integrated mass-loss rate from the AGB stars of 0.2-1.0 x 10^(-3) solar masses per year and find that the distribution of bolometric luminosities and mass-loss rates are consistent with those for other nearby metal-poor galaxies. Both the optical completeness fractions and mass-loss rates in IC 1613 are very similar to those in the Local Group dwarf irregular, WLM, which is expected given their similar characteristics and evolutionary histories.Comment: Accepted by ApJ, 26 pages, 10 figures, version with high-resolution figures available at: http://webusers.astro.umn.edu/~djackson

Floc formation reduces the pH stress experienced by microorganisms living in alkaline environments

The survival of microorganisms within a cementitious geological disposal facility for radioactive wastes is heavily dependent on their ability to survive the calcium dominated, hyper-alkaline conditions resulting from the dissolution of the cementitious materials. The present study shows that the formation of flocs, composed of a complex mixture of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS), provides protection against alkaline pH values up to pH 13.0. The flocs were dominated by Alishewanella and Dietzia sp, producing a mannose rich carbohydrate fraction incorporating extracellular DNA, resulting in Ca2+ sequestration. EPS provided a ~10 µm thick layer around the cells within the centre of the flocs, which were capable of growth at pH 11.0 and 11.5, maintaining internal pH values of pH 10.4 and 10.7 respectively. Survival was observed at pH 12.0, where an internal floc pH of 11.6 was observed alongside a reduced associated biomass. Limited floc survival (<2 weeks) was observed at pH 13.0.This study demonstrates that flocs are able to maintain a lower internal pH in response to the hyperalkaline conditions expected to occur within a cementitious, geological disposal facility for radioactive wastes and indicates that floc communities within such a facility would be capable of survival up to a pH of 12.0

An enhanced functional ability questionnaire (faVIQ) to measure the impact of rehabilitation services on the visually impaired

AIM To develop a short, enhanced functional ability Quality of Vision (faVIQ) instrument based on previous questionnaires employing comprehensive modern statistical techniques to ensure the use of an appropriate response scale, items and scoring of the visual related difficulties experienced by patients with visual impairment. METHODS Items in current quality-of-life questionnaires for the visually impaired were refined by a multi-professional group and visually impaired focus groups. The resulting 76 items were completed by 293 visually impaired patients with stable vision on two occasions separated by a month. The faVIQ scores of 75 patients with no ocular pathology were compared to 75 age and gender matched patients with visual im pairm ent. RESULTS Rasch analysis reduced the faVIQ items to 27. Correlation to standard visual metrics was moderate (r=0.32-0.46) and to the NEI-VFQ was 0.48. The faVIQ was able to clearly discriminate between age and gender matched populations with no ocular pathology and visual impairment with an index of 0.983 and 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity using a cut off of 29. CONCLUSION The faVIQ allows sensitive assessm ent of quality-of-life in the visually im paired and should support studies which evaluate the effectiveness of low vision rehabilitation services. © Copyright International Journal of Ophthalmology Press

Optical Telecommunications-Band Clock based on Neutral Titanium Atoms

We propose an optical clock based on narrow, spin-forbidden M1 and E2 transitions in laser-cooled neutral titanium. These transitions exhibit much smaller black body radiation shifts than those in alkaline earth atoms, small quadratic Zeeman shifts, and have wavelengths in the S, C, and L-bands of fiber-optic telecommunication standards, allowing for integration with robust laser technology. We calculate lifetimes; transition matrix elements; dynamic scalar, vector, and tensor polarizabilities; and black body radiation shifts of the clock transitions using a high-precision relativistic hybrid method that combines a configuration interaction and coupled cluster approaches. We also calculate the line strengths and branching ratios of the transitions used for laser cooling. To identify magic trapping wavelengths, we have completed the largest-to-date direct dynamical polarizability calculations. Finally, we identify new challenges that arise in precision measurements due to magnetic dipole-dipole interactions and describe an approach to overcome them. Direct access to a telecommunications-band atomic frequency standard will aid the deployment of optical clock networks and clock comparisons over long distances.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures main text; 8 pages, 3 figures supplementary tex